RESUMO
In recent decades, there has been increasing eutrophication of rivers and lagoons in Uruguay and solutions leading to water purification are being sought. The growing pollution has been attributed to nitrogen and phosphorus compounds exported from the river basins with intensification of agricultural production and the absence of tertiary treatment for urban and industrial effluents. Although nitrogen and phosphorus are relevant to eutrophication, there are also other factors that can promote eutrophication and algal blooms. This paper reports a broad analysis of water quality variables recorded over 9 years (2009-2018) at 17 sampling stations on the Uruguay River and 16 sampling stations on the Río Negro, and explores their relationship with the changes of chlorophyll a (Chl-a) concentrations using a generalized linear model and a neural network simulation (NNS). The input variables were total phosphorus; total suspended solids; electrical conductivity of water (ECw); alkalinity; water temperature (T); water pH (pH) and sampling month. The NNS explained 79% of Chl-a variations and showed the most relevant variables to be T, ECw, and pH. Moreover, the NNS showed that replacement of current land uses by natural prairie would not significantly reduce Chl-a concentrations. The results showed that the main factors that drive Chl-a concentrations (i.e., algae) are not directly linked to agriculture land use.
